Afternoon parallel session of the Forest Mensuration Club
In recent years, there have been reports e.g., on the effects of droughts on tree seed production and forest growth. Because forest growth models are largely based on historical data greater variability in natural phenomena (e.g., increased extreme weather events) can have a significant impact on the reliability of forest development estimations.
Changes in forest growth may have major economic and social impacts. In addition to the national reporting, there is a need e.g., in the carbon offset market, to produce estimates of forest carbon sink that are as reliable as possible even for decades in the future. However, models mainly produce an estimate based on certain conditions, whose underlying assumptions may not be fully valid in the future. Identifying and preparing for these changes is essential to be able to build realistic forest development models.
Some of the basic questions in the session will be:
- What are the means to define and model the effects of variation in natural phenomena on forest development?
- How can different uncertainties be taken into account in models and calculations?
- How can variability be modelled if the model does not include a factor that introduces the uncertainty (e.g., rainfall or seed production)?
- Is the observed estimation error due to changes in conditions or is it only a natural variation in the model?
- How to select the most likely option from different scenarios?
Programme 13:15 – 16:00
Are you looking for a talk recording in Finnish? Select Finnish as the page language by clicking the flag in the top right corner of this page.
| 13.15-13.35 | Mallinnuksen epävarmuuksien vaikutusten ja lähteiden arviointi metsäekosysteemin hiilitaseen alueellisissa projektioissa | Virpi Junttila1, Francesco Minunno2, Mikko Peltoniemi3, Martin Forsius1, Anu Akujärvi1, Paavo Ojanen2, Annikki Mäkelä2; 1Suomen ympäristökeskus, 2Helsingin yliopisto, 3Luonnonvarakeskus |
| 13.35-13.55 | NORSIM: a Nordic forest growth simulator for continuous cover forestry and climate change | Simone Bianchi1, Emma Holmström2, Saija Huuskonen1, Kari Korhonen1, Christian Kuehne3, Kobra Maleki3, Urban Nilsson2, Johannes Schumacher3, Jari Hynynen3; 1 Natural Resources Institute Finland, 2Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, 3Norwegian Institute of Bioeconomy Research |
| 13.55-14.15 | Bayes-lähestymistapa metsän kehityksen ennustamiseen ja siihen liittyvän epävarmuuden arviointiin | Mikko Kuronen1, Mari Myllymäki1, Simone Bianchi1, Arne Pommerening2, Lauri Mehtätalo1; 1Luonnonvarakeskus, 2Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences SLU |
| 14.15-14.30 | Questions and discussion | |
| 14.30-15.00 | Coffee break | |
| 15.00-15.20 | Bioottisten tuhonaiheuttajien ja niiden välisten yhdysvaikutusten mallintaminen muuttuvassa ilmastossa | Juha Honkaniemi1, Katharina Albrich1, Winslow Hansen2, Katherine Hayes2, Werner Rammer3, Rupert Seidl3; 1Luonnonvarakeskus, 2Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, USA, 3Technische Universität München, Saksa |
| 15.20-15.40 | Outbreak probabilities of macro-moth species in warming high latitudes | Anna Suuronen1, Kristin Böttcher1, Stefan Fronzek1, Ida-Maria Huikkonen1, Matthew Nielsen2, Sami Kivelä2, Juha Pöyry1; Finnish Environment Institute, 2University of Oulu |
| 15.40-16.00 | Discussion and conclusions |
Session chair
Markus Holopainen
markus . holopainen () helsinki . fi
tel +358 50 380 4984
Session technical support
Juho Niskala
juho . niskala () gmail . com
tel +358 40 751 8134